AKD Securities Limited – AKD Daily (05-01-2023)

Karachi, January 05, 2023 (PPI-OT): Pakistan Oil and Gas: Crude oil starts 2023 off with a dampener

Brent futures have dropped by 9.4% since the beginning of the new year, as demand outlook is dampened.

Increasing COVID-19 cases in China has led to expectations of the country rolling back the easing restrictions, which would lead to softened demand for crude oil. The WHO has indicated that the country is under-reporting the extent of the spread of the virus and related deaths.

A slowdown in the US is making things worse for the commodity, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI clocking in at 48.4 in Dec’22, compared to 49 in the earlier month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity in the country.

FOMC minutes have indicated a higher focus on combatting inflation, reversing expectations of an interest rate cut later in 2023. In the event that the FOMC increases interest rates even further, demand outlook is likely to worsen.

Easing crude oil prices are a blessing for the country, with a US$5/bbl fall in prices leading to ~US$1bn annual saving in the import bill (assuming FY22 quantity imports for crude oil and petroleum products and unchanged international cracking spreads). From the vantage of the equity market, the lower crude oil prices are expected to dampen earnings of OGDC/PPL/POL/MARI by 4.1%/2.8%/2.5%/2.2%, respectively in FY24.