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AKD Securities Limited – AKD Daily (January 04, 2023)

Karachi, January 04, 2023 (PPI-OT): Pakistan OMCs: OMC sales for Dec’22 – lowest since the pandemic

POL product sales clocked in at 1.335mn tons for Dec’22, down by 11%/14% on YoY/MoM basis, compared to 1.51mn/1.54mn tons during Dec’21/Nov’22.

On the retail front, MS volumes shrunk noticeably, by 15%YoY during 2QFY23, as increased fuel prices and restricted mobility (floods/rain destruction) dampened the overall demand.

Govt. is likely to take a major hit in the non-tax revenue department as well i.e. PDL, as retail offtakes have decline majorly during 1HFY23, down 19%YoY.

Assuming unchanged trends in POL offtakes and similar rates, total PDL collections are expected to end the full year at ~PkR630.4bn, an estimated annual shortfall of PkR225bn.

For the full year, we expect industry offtakes to clock in at 19.1 mn tones for FY23, down by 15%YoY (previous estimate: down 7-8%YoY)