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AKD Securities Limited – AKD Daily (November 21, 2022)

Karachi, November 21, 2022 (PPI-OT): Power Generation the winter effect

CPPA-G released its Energy Purchase Data for the month of October on Friday, where generation for the month has clocked in at 10,705GWh. The lower generation is due to the decreased demand for power, as demand usually peaks in August/September.

The significant increases in power generation have been seen from Coal fired power plants, with generation up 14%MoM as the payout received by CPEC IPPs has helped the plants remain functional in the month. Due to elevated generation costs from Furnace Oil, RFO based generation is down 86%MoM and 87%YoY as RFO fired plants have ranked lower in the Merit Order List.

Average cost of generation for the month has dropped down by 9%MoM to PkR9.0/kWh owing to decrease in generation from the costly RFO source. In terms of the generation mix, the largest sources are Hydel, Nuclear, RLNG, Coal and Gas, contributing 29%/21%/17%/15%/12% to the mix.

HUBC has seen another decrease in utilization, with 8% less power purchased compared to September while down 49%YoY. KAPCO has also seen a dip in utilization due to lesser dependence on RFO in the month, with utilization factor dipping to 4% compared to 12% in September and 57% in Oct’21, hence generation is lower 68%MoM and 93%YoY.

Going forward, we can expect the IPPs to maintain reduced levels of generation in the coming winters, before picking up generation back again in February as winters take their grip on the country, lowering overall demand for power.

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