IGI Securities Limited – Commodity News

Karachi, July 11, 2018 (PPI-OT): Crude Oil

Technical

The WTI Crude Oil market has started to grind a bit to the upside, reaching towards the $75 level above. That of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that has caused a bit of resistance in the past. If it can break above that level, it’s likely that it will continue to go towards the $77.50 level, and of course beyond their if things start to heat up. If the US dollar starts to fall, that will also add to bullish pressure. Economists believe that currently it is trying to build enough momentum to break above the $75 level, so short-term pullbacks should be buying opportunities. Brent markets have also rallied, and even broke above the top of the gap down from last week. Now it looks as if it will try to make a move towards the $80 level, which of course is psychologically important and of course will probably attract a lot of attention.

Highlights

Crude oil is seeing declines with WTI knocking down to 73.40

Oil prices were also weighed down by expectations for a continued uptick in U.S production

The U.S pulled out of a multinational deal in May to lift sanctions against Iran in return for curbs to its nuclear program

There is a long deadline on this, if these tariffs are introduced there will be an impact on global growth and demand

Crude’s rise yesterday was fuelled in part by positive macro spill over from strong global equities

Fundamentals

Oil prices fell today, with Brent dropping by more than $1 at one point, after U.S President Donald Trump threatened to levy new trade tariffs on China. The trade concerns have bitten today and the reason is that this is above and beyond what the market was expecting.

The specter of tariffs on a further $200 billion worth of Chinese goods sent commodities lower along with stock markets, as trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies intensified.

Brent crude futures were down 65 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $78.21 a barrel, having fallen to as low as $77.60. U.S crude was down 43 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $73.68.

The bearish mood was also fuelled by news the United States would consider requests for waivers from sanctions due to snap back into place on Iranian crude exports.

U.S crude inventories fell last week by 6.8 million barrels, according to data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute. That decline was larger than expected, causing crude futures to gain in post-settlement trading.

U.S crude oil production is expected to average more than 12 million barrels per day late next year for the first time, the U.S Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report on Tuesday.

Washington will consider requests from some countries to be exempted from sanctions it will put into effect in November to prevent Iran from exporting oil. Washington had earlier told countries they must halt all imports of Iranian oil from Nov. 4 or face U.S financial measures, with no exemptions