IGI Securities Limited – Commodity News

Karachi, January 09, 2019 (PPI-OT): Crude Oil

Technical

The WTI Crude Oil market rallied a bit again during the trading session yesterday, testing the $50 level again. At this point, the market is going to continue to struggle, and therefore it would look for short-term pullback. However, if it get a daily close above the $50 handle, then it could see this market go much higher. Brent markets rallied a bit as well, as they continue to use the 20 day EMA as minor support. However, it has the $60 level above offering resistance also, so that could be something to pay attention to. If it break above there, then it could go much higher. In the meantime, it anticipate that there is a little bit of bullish pressure here and it certainly seems to be outperforming the WTI Crude Oil market, but until it clear that $60 handle it will be a little bit suspect, and the people will be skittish about putting too much money to work in this market.

Highlights

Oil prices rose more than 1 percent today, extending gains from the previous session

The World Bank expects global economic growth to slow to 2.9 percent in 2019 from 3 percent in 2018

The oil price jumps were in line with Asian stock markets, which climbed to 3-1/2 week highs

After a dreadful December for risk markets, crude oil continues to catch a positive vibe

Our lower oil price assumptions reflect slowing demand and rising supply globally

Fundamentals

U.S crude oil prices today rose above $50 per barrel for the first time in 2019 on hopes that Washington and Beijing can resolve a trade dispute that has triggered a global economic slowdown.

U.S West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were at $50.14 per barrel, up 36 cents, or 0.7 percent from their last settlement. International Brent crude futures had yet to trade.

The world’s two biggest economies will continue trade talks in Beijing for an unscheduled third day today, U.S officials said, amid signs of progress on issues including purchases of U.S farm and energy commodities and increased U.S access to China’s markets.

Oil prices have also been receiving support from supply cuts started at the end of 2018 by a group of producers around the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as well as non-OPEC member Russia.

Crude oil prices continued to march higher, with investors becoming increasingly confident that the OPEC cuts would tighten the market. At the beginning of 2018 the global economy was firing on all cylinders, but it lost speed during the year and the ride could get even bumpier in the year ahead.

Oil investors also worried that a possible worldwide economic slowdown could dent fuel consumption. The hedge fund industry has cut significantly its bullish positions in crude futures.

If no deal is reached by March 2, Trump has said he will proceed with raising tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports at a time when China’s economy is slowing significantly.